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Oil price increases were partially fueled by reports that petroleum production is at [7] [8] [9] or near full capacity. Besides supply and demand pressures, at times security related factors may have contributed to increases in prices, [] including the War on Terror , missile launches in North Korea , [] the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon , [] nuclear brinkmanship between the U.

Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves. This price drop has placed many US tight oil producers under considerable financial pressure. In the past, sudden increases in the price of oil have led to economic recessions , such as the and energy crises. The effect the increased price of oil has on an economy is known as a price shock.

In many European countries, which have high taxes on fuels , such price shocks could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise. A baseline scenario for a recent IMF paper found oil production growing at 0. Researchers at the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum found that the economy can adjust to steady, gradual increases in the price of crude better than wild lurches.

Some economists predict that a substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources , such as coal or liquefied natural gas. This substitution can be only temporary, as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well.

Prior to the run-up in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada, and other countries. This trend has been reversing because of sustained high prices of fuel. The September sales data for all vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased.

Hybrid and diesel vehicles are also gaining in popularity. In , a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States, and that record energy prices would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices. The Export Land Model states that after peak oil petroleum exporting countries will be forced to reduce their exports more quickly than their production decreases because of internal demand growth.

Countries that rely on imported petroleum will therefore be affected earlier and more dramatically than exporting countries. Internal consumption grew by 5. Canadian economist Jeff Rubin has stated that high oil prices are likely to result in increased consumption in developed countries through partial manufacturing de-globalisation of trade.

Manufacturing production would move closer to the end consumer to minimise transportation network costs, and therefore a demand decoupling from gross domestic product would occur. Higher oil prices would lead to increased freighting costs and consequently, the manufacturing industry would move back to the developed countries since freight costs would outweigh the current economic wage advantage of developing countries. Since supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern agriculture techniques, a fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented famine in the coming decades.

The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is ammonia production for fertilizer via the Haber process , which is essential to high-yielding intensive agriculture.

The specific fossil fuel input to fertilizer production is primarily natural gas , to provide hydrogen via steam reforming. Given sufficient supplies of renewable electricity , hydrogen can be generated without fossil fuels using methods such as electrolysis.

For example, the Vemork hydroelectric plant in Norway used its surplus electricity output to generate renewable ammonia from to Iceland currently generates ammonia using the electrical output from its hydroelectric and geothermal power plants , because Iceland has those resources in abundance while having no domestic hydrocarbon resources, and a high cost for importing natural gas.

A majority of Americans live in suburbs , a type of low-density settlement designed around universal personal automobile use. Peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to use bicycles or electric vehicles. Additional options include telecommuting , moving to rural areas , or moving to higher density areas, where walking and public transportation are more viable options.

In the latter two cases, suburbs may become the " slums of the future. Stressing the energy component of future development plans is seen as an important goal. Rising oil prices, if they occur, would also affect the cost of food, heating, and electricity. A high amount of stress would then be put on current middle to low income families as economies contract from the decline in excess funds, decreasing employment rates.

Methods that have been suggested for mitigating these urban and suburban issues include the use of non-petroleum vehicles such as electric cars , battery electric vehicles , transit-oriented development , carfree cities , bicycles , new trains , new pedestrianism , smart growth , shared space , urban consolidation , urban villages , and New Urbanism. An extensive report on the effects of compact development by the United States National Research Council of the Academy of Sciences , commissioned by the United States Congress, stated six main findings.

Third, that higher density, mixed-use developments would produce both direct reductions in CO 2 emissions from less driving , and indirect reductions such as from lower amounts of materials used per housing unit, higher efficiency climate control, longer vehicle lifespans, and higher efficiency delivery of goods and services. Fourth, that although short term reductions in energy use and CO 2 emissions would be modest, that these reductions would become more significant over time.

Fifth, that a major obstacle to more compact development in the United States is political resistance from local zoning regulators, which would hamper efforts by state and regional governments to participate in land-use planning. Sixth, the committee agreed that changes in development that would alter driving patterns and building efficiency would have various secondary costs and benefits that are difficult to quantify.

The report recommends that policies supporting compact development and especially its ability to reduce driving, energy use, and CO 2 emissions should be encouraged. An economic theory that has been proposed as a remedy is the introduction of a steady state economy.

Such a system could include a tax shifting from income to depleting natural resources and pollution , as well as the limitation of advertising that stimulates demand and population growth. It could also include the institution of policies that move away from globalization and toward localization to conserve energy resources, provide local jobs, and maintain local decision-making authority. Zoning policies could be adjusted to promote resource conservation and eliminate sprawl.

Since aviation relies mainly on jet fuels derived from crude oil, commercial aviation has been predicted to go into decline with the global oil production. To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives, at least ten to twenty years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time. Such mitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of unconventional oil.

The timing of mitigation responses is critical. Premature initiation would be undesirable, but if initiated too late could be more costly and have more negative economic consequences. Permaculture sees peak oil as holding tremendous potential for positive change, assuming countries act with foresight.

The rebuilding of local food networks, energy production, and the general implementation of " energy descent culture" are argued to be ethical responses to the acknowledgment of finite fossil resources. The Transition Towns movement, started in Totnes , Devon [] and spread internationally by "The Transition Handbook" Rob Hopkins and Transition Network, sees the restructuring of society for more local resilience and ecological stewardship as a natural response to the combination of peak oil and climate change.

The theory of peak oil is controversial and became an issue of political debate in the USA and Europe in the mids. Critics argued that newly found oil reserves forestalled a peak oil event. Some argued that oil production from new oil reserves and existing fields will continue to increase at a rate that outpaces demand, until alternate energy sources for current fossil fuel dependence are found.

Another argument against the peak oil theory is reduced demand from various options and technologies substituting oil. The president of Royal Dutch Shell 's U. Hofmeister also pointed to unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada, where Shell was active. The Canadian oil sands—a natural combination of sand, water, and oil found largely in Alberta and Saskatchewan—are believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil.

Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, [] in the form of oil shale. Environmentalists argue that major environmental, social, and economic obstacles would make extracting oil from these areas excessively difficult. He thought in that high energy prices would cause social unrest similar to the Rodney King riots.

Christoph Rühl, chief economist of BP , argued against the peak oil hypothesis: Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientific or ideological grounds, would be insensitive to prices. In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil — which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground, consumed at a certain rate, and then it's finished — does not react to anything Therefore there will never be a moment when the world runs out of oil because there will always be a price at which the last drop of oil can clear the market.

And you can turn anything into oil into if you are willing to pay the financial and environmental price Global Warming is likely to be more of a natural limit than all these peak oil theories combined. Peak oil has been predicted for years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way. Rühl argued that the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" factors such as the availability of staff, expertise, technology, investment security, funds, and global warming, and that the oil question was about price and not the physical availability.

In , Daniel Yergin of CERA suggest that a recent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry, not of complete exhaustion of resources or an apocalyptic shock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives. Each time-whether it was the 'gasoline famine' at the end of WWI or the 'permanent shortage' of the s -technology and the opening of new frontier areas have banished the spectre of decline.

There's no reason to think that technology is finished this time. In , Clive Mather, CEO of Shell Canada, said the Earth's supply of bitumen hydrocarbons was "almost infinite", referring to hydrocarbons in oil sands. In attorney and mechanical engineer Peter W. Huber asserted that the world was just running out of "cheap oil," explaining that as oil prices rise, unconventional sources become economically viable. He predicted that, "[t]he tar sands of Alberta alone contain enough hydrocarbon to fuel the entire planet for over years.

Environmental journalist George Monbiot responded to a report by Leonardo Maugeri [] by suggesting that there is more than enough oil from unconventional sources for capitalism to "deep-fry" the world with climate change.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December [73].

Oil reserves and List of largest oil fields. Petroleum , Means of production , and Extraction of petroleum. Nationalization of oil supplies. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Predicting the timing of peak oil. Hirsch Report and Malthusian catastrophe. World oil market chronology from and Price of petroleum. Effects of oil price.

Mitigation of peak oil. Retrieved 27 May US Department of Energy: Retrieved 14 January The View from Hubbert's Peak. Twilight in the Desert: John Wiley and Sons. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. Retrieved 7 April Retrieved 27 July Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Archived from the original PDF on 26 July Retrieved 15 November Retrieved 27 December Retrieved 4 September Retrieved 21 August Spring Meeting of the Southern District.

San Antonio , Texas: Retrieved 18 April The Impending World Oil Shortage. Retrieved 24 July Retrieved 8 April Retrieved 25 August Petroleum and other liquid fuels " PDF.

United States Energy Information Administration. Retrieved 11 July That's Bad News for Climate Policy". Guardian News and Media. Retrieved 16 August Retrieved 18 November Retrieved 20 December The Wall Street Journal.

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